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Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Membros integrados

Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Doutoramento em Economia Universidade Cornell

lfaguiar@eeg.uminho.pt

Campus de Gualtar - Edificio 8 - 2.25

ORCID

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Sobre

Professor catedrático na Universidade do Minho, doutorado em Economia pela Cornell University, mestre em Economia pela Universidade do Porto e licenciado em Economia pela Universidade de Coimbra.
Já foi Director do Departamento de Economia e Vice-Presidente para a Investigação e Internacionalização da Escola de Economia e Gestão.
Em 2011 recebeu o Prémio Gulbenkian para a Internacionalização das Ciências Sociais. Em 2010 e 2013 recebeu o Prémio de Mérito na Investigação, EEG/UMinho.
Já recebeu diversas bolsas FCT para diversos projectos. A última que recebeu é relativa a um projecto sobre ” Regras de votação e distorções eleitorais”, do qual é investigador principal e que conta com um financiamento de €95.000 para 3 anos.

Áreas de interesse

Macroeconomia

Economia Portuguesa

Economia Política

Wavelet Analysis

Mercados de Carbono.

Publicações

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Fernandes, B , & Magalhães, P C

Economic forecasts and executive approval

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties DOI

Ojo, M O , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J

The performance of OECD's composite leading indicator

International Journal of Finance & Economics DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2023)

The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 151, 104620 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Conceição, G , & Soares, M J (2021)

How Far is Gas from becoming a Global Commodity?

Energy Journal, 43(4), 153–172 DOI

Alexandre, J C , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2021)

Opinion expression on hazing: has the Spiral of Silence reached the Portuguese higher education?

Journal of Further and Higher Education, 45(10), 1325–1341 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & e Maria Joana Soares, M M F M (2020)

A Lei de Okun sob novas lentes

In A P Duarte, M Simões, P Bação, & R Martins (Eds ), Estudos de Homenagem a João Sousa Andrade (pp 485–500) Almedina DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Vanberg, C A (2020)

What are the best quorum rules? A laboratory investigation

Public Choice, 185(1-2), 215–231 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2020)

Okun's Law across time and frequencies

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 116(103897) DOI

Ojo, M O , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2020)

A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve

Empirical Economics, 58(5), 2333–2351 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Veiga, F J (2019)

Transparency, Policy Outcomes, and Incumbent Support

Kyklos, 72(3), 357–380 DOI

Alexandre, F , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Bação, P (2019)

Crise e Castigo e o dia seguinte - Os desequilibrios, o resgate e a recuperação da economia portuguesa

Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos DOI

Magalhães, P C , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2019)

Procedural Fairness, the Economy, and Support for Political Authorities

Political Psychology, 40(1), 165–181 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2018)

Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain

Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, 122–137 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Soares, M J , & Sousa, R (2018)

California's carbon market and energy prices: A wavelet analysis

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2126) DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Brinca, P , Gujónsson, H V , & Soares, M J (2017)

Business cycle synchronization across U S states

B E Journal of Macroeconomics, 17(1) DOI

Alexandre, F , Aguiar-Conraria, L , Bação, P , & Portela, M (2017)

Poupança e Financiamento da Economia Portuguesa

Imprensa Nacional - Casa da Moeda DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Vanberg, C A (2016)

Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts

Experimental Economics, 19(4), 886–909 DOI

Alexandre, F , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Bação, P (2016)

Crise e Castigo - Os desequilíbrios e o resgate da economia portuguesa

Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Soares, M J , & Magalhães, P (2015)

Application of Wavelets to the Study of Political History

In R A Meyers (Ed ), Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science (pp 1–16) Springer DOI

Sousa, R , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2015)

Energy and carbon prices: A comparison of interactions in the European Union emissions trading scheme and the Western climate initiative market

Carbon Management, 6(3-4), 129–140 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2014)

The continuous wavelet transform: Moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis

Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(2), 344–375 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Rodrigues, T M , & Soares, M J (2014)

Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area

In M Gallegati & W Semmler (Eds ), Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance, Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, 20 (pp 143–156) Springer International Publishing DOI

Sousa, R , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2014)

Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO 2 prices

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 414, 118–127 DOI

Soares, M J , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2014)

Inflation Rate Dynamics Convergence within the Euro

In B Murgante, S Misra, A M A C Rocha, C Torre, J G Rocha, M I Falcão, D Taniar, B O Apduhan & O Gervasi (Eds ) ICCSA 2014: Computational Science and Its Applications - ICCSA 2014 Lecture Notes in Computer Science (Vol 8579, pp 132-145) Springer, Cham DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Soares, M J (2013)

The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: A wavelet analysis

Public Choice, 156(3-4), 387–408 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2013)

Convergence of the Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Eurozone: A Time-Frequency Analysis

Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(3), 377–398 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Alexandre, F , & Pinho, M C (2012)

O euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual

Análise Social, 203(xlvii, 2º), 298-321 DOI

Aguiar, S , Aguiar-Conraria, L , Gulamhussen, M A , & Magalhães, P C (2012)

Foreign direct investment and home-country political risk: The case of Brazil

Latin American Research Review, 47(2), 144–165 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Wen, Y (2012)

OPEC's oil exporting strategy and macroeconomic (in)stability

Energy Economics, 34(1), 132–136 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Alexandre, F , & de Pinho, M C (2012)

The euro and the growth of the Portuguese economy:a counterfactual analysis

Análise Social, 47(2), 298–321 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Soares, M J (2012)

Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series

American Journal of Political Science, 56(2), 500–518 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2012)

The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(12), 1950–1970 DOI

Magalhães, P C , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Lewis-Beck, M S (2012)

Forecasting Spanish elections

International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 769–776 DOI

Conraria, L A , Alexandre, F , Bação, P , Cerejeira, J , & Portela, M (2012)

Emprego e TSU: o impacto no emprego das alterações nas contribuições dos trabalhadores e das empresas

NIPE Policy Paper, Universidade do Minho, Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE) DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2011)

Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis

Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 477–489 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2011)

Oil and the macroeconomy: Using wavelets to analyze old issues

Empirical Economics, 40(3), 645–655 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Magalhães, P C (2010)

How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: Evidence from a pivotal voter model

European Journal of Political Economy, 26(4), 541–557 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Magalhães, P C (2010)

Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout

Public Choice, 144(1), 63–81 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L (2009)

Challenges Ahead for the Portuguese Economy

South European Society and Politics, 14(2), 239–240 DOI

Magalhães, P C , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2009)

Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese general elections

Electoral Studies, 28(2), 314–321 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L (2008)

A note on the stability properties of goodwin's predator-prey model

Review of Radical Political Economics, 40(4), 518–523 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Wen, Y (2008)

A note on oil dependence and economic instability

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12(5), 717–723 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Azevedo, N , & Soares, M J (2008)

Using wavelets to decompose the time-frequency effects of monetary policy

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 387(12), 2863–2878 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Wen, Y (2007)

Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(4), 925–944 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Shell, K (2006)

Capital Gains

International Journal of Economic Theory, 2(3-4), 331–349 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Shell, K (2005)

Capital Gains: Blue Machines and Red Machines

The Singapore Economic Review, 50(SPEC ISS 1), 437–447 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L (2005)

Public vs Private schooling in an endogenous growth model

Economics Bulletin, 9(10), 1–6 DOI

Aguiar, L F (2001)

The Adequacy of the Traditional Econometric Approach to Nonlinear Cycles

(No 11) Universidade do Minho, NIPE DOI

Mais publicações

Projectos

CLICTOUR - Turismo Resiliente às Alterações Climáticas nas Áreas Protegidas do Norte de Portugal

Financiamento: Comissão de Coordenação e Desenvolvimento Regional do Norte | CCDR-N

Duração: 2021-05-01 - 2023-06-30

Researchers and Team

Investigador responsável

Rita Sousa

Equipa

Francisco Carballo Cruz
Luís Aguiar-Conraria
António Avelino Batista Vieira
António José Bento Gonçalves
João Cerejeira
Linda Gonçalves Veiga
José Cadima Ribeiro
Ana Melo

É tudo sobre produtividade: contribuições para a compreensão da estagnação da economia portuguesa

Financiamento: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duração: 2018-10-01 - 2022-09-30

Researchers and Team

Investigador responsável

Miguel Portela
Fernando Alexandre

Equipa

João Cerejeira
Marta Simões
Carla Sá
Ana Carvalho
Luís Aguiar-Conraria
Nuno Azevedo
Pedro Bação
Francisco Veiga
Gilberto Loureiro
Paulo Guimarães
Sujiao ZHAO
Marta Silva
Octávio Figueiredo

Regras de votação e distorções eleitorais

Financiamento: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duração: 2016-05-01 - 2019-12-31

Researchers and Team

Investigador responsável

Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Equipa

Pedro Magalhães

Literacia Financeira

Financiamento: European Investment Bank

Duração: 2013-01-01 - 2015-12-31

Researchers and Team

Equipa

Linda Gonçalves Veiga
Francisco Veiga
Luís Aguiar-Conraria
Fernando Alexandre
Carla Sá
Miguel Portela

POPSTAR - Acompanhamento, Análise e Pesquisa de Opinião Pública e Sentimentos

Financiamento: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duração: 2012-07-01 - 2014-12-31

Researchers and Team

Investigador responsável

Pedro Magalhães

Equipa

Luís Aguiar-Conraria
Mário Jorge Gaspar Silva
Carlos Manuel Pinto Soares
Paula Cristina Fonseca Carvalho
Nina Wiesehomeier
Silvio Amir Moreira
Matko Bošnjak
Tiago Sá Cunha
Luis Filipe Gomes

1986-2010: A Economia Portuguesa na União Europeia

Financiamento: Universidade do Minho

Duração: 2010-04-01 - 2014-05-07

Researchers and Team

Investigador responsável

Fernando Alexandre

Equipa

Miguel Portela
Francisco Carballo Cruz
Carla Sá
Francisco Veiga
Luís Aguiar-Conraria
Manuel Herédia
Sílvia Sousa

Política monetária e o preço dos activos em economias com alterações de regime

Financiamento: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duração: 2010-01-01 - 2012-06-30

Researchers and Team

Investigador responsável

Pedro Bação

Equipa

Fernando Alexandre
Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Oil shocks and the Macroeconomy: Econometric estimation, economic modeling and policy implications

Financiamento: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P.

Duração: 2008-01-01 - 2011-03-31

Researchers and Team

Investigador responsável

Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Equipa

Carlos Cortinhas
Fernando Alexandre

Ensino

Economia Monetária e Financeira Internacional Mestrado

Economia Monetária Internacional Licenciatura

Filtros e Ôndulas em Economia Doutoramento

Metodologia e Proposta de Investigação em Economia Mestrado

Pessoas

Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Campus de Gualtar - Edificio 8 - 2.25

Sobre

Áreas de interesse

Publicações

Economic forecasts and executive approval

The performance of OECD's composite leading indicator

The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency

How Far is Gas from becoming a Global Commodity?

Opinion expression on hazing: has the Spiral of Silence reached the Portuguese higher education?

A Lei de Okun sob novas lentes

What are the best quorum rules? A laboratory investigation

Okun's Law across time and frequencies

A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve

Transparency, Policy Outcomes, and Incumbent Support

Crise e Castigo e o dia seguinte - Os desequilibrios, o resgate e a recuperação da economia portuguesa

Procedural Fairness, the Economy, and Support for Political Authorities

Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain

California's carbon market and energy prices: A wavelet analysis

Business cycle synchronization across U S states

Poupança e Financiamento da Economia Portuguesa

Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts

Crise e Castigo - Os desequilíbrios e o resgate da economia portuguesa

Application of Wavelets to the Study of Political History

Energy and carbon prices: A comparison of interactions in the European Union emissions trading scheme and the Western climate initiative market

The continuous wavelet transform: Moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis

Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area

Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO 2 prices

Inflation Rate Dynamics Convergence within the Euro

The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: A wavelet analysis

Convergence of the Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Eurozone: A Time-Frequency Analysis

O euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual

Foreign direct investment and home-country political risk: The case of Brazil

OPEC's oil exporting strategy and macroeconomic (in)stability

The euro and the growth of the Portuguese economy:a counterfactual analysis

Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series

The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies

Forecasting Spanish elections

Emprego e TSU: o impacto no emprego das alterações nas contribuições dos trabalhadores e das empresas

Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis

Oil and the macroeconomy: Using wavelets to analyze old issues

How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: Evidence from a pivotal voter model

Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout

Challenges Ahead for the Portuguese Economy

Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese general elections

A note on the stability properties of goodwin's predator-prey model

A note on oil dependence and economic instability

Using wavelets to decompose the time-frequency effects of monetary policy

Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks

Capital Gains

Capital Gains: Blue Machines and Red Machines

Public vs Private schooling in an endogenous growth model

The Adequacy of the Traditional Econometric Approach to Nonlinear Cycles

Projectos

CLICTOUR - Turismo Resiliente às Alterações Climáticas nas Áreas Protegidas do Norte de Portugal

Investigador responsável

Equipa

É tudo sobre produtividade: contribuições para a compreensão da estagnação da economia portuguesa

Investigador responsável

Equipa

Regras de votação e distorções eleitorais

Investigador responsável

Equipa

Literacia Financeira

Equipa

POPSTAR - Acompanhamento, Análise e Pesquisa de Opinião Pública e Sentimentos

Investigador responsável

Equipa

1986-2010: A Economia Portuguesa na União Europeia

Investigador responsável

Equipa

Política monetária e o preço dos activos em economias com alterações de regime

Investigador responsável

Equipa

Oil shocks and the Macroeconomy: Econometric estimation, economic modeling and policy implications

Investigador responsável

Equipa

Ensino

ODS