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Luís Aguiar-Conraria

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Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Ph.D in Economics Cornell University

lfaguiar@eeg.uminho.pt

Campus de Gualtar - Edificio 8 - 2.25

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Luís Aguiar-Conraria CV

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About

Full Professor at the University of Minho, Ph.D. in Economics (Cornell University), MSc in Economics (University of Porto), and Licentiate in Economics (University of Coimbra).
In the past, he has been the director of the Economics Department and Vice-president for Internationalization and Research in the School of Economics and Management.
In 2011, he received the Gulbenkian Prize for Social Sciences Internationalization. In 2010 and 2013 he received the EEG/UMinho’s Prize for excellence in research He has received several grants from FCT. Currently, he has a 3-year grant about voting rules and electoral distortions – €95 000.

Areas of interest

Macroeconomics

Portuguese Economy

Political Economy

Wavelet Analysis Carbon Markets

Publications

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Fernandes, B , & Magalhães, P C

Economic forecasts and executive approval

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties DOI

Ojo, M O , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J

The performance of OECD's composite leading indicator

International Journal of Finance & Economics DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2023)

The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 151, 104620 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Conceição, G , & Soares, M J (2021)

How Far is Gas from becoming a Global Commodity?

Energy Journal, 43(4), 153–172 DOI

Alexandre, J C , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2021)

Opinion expression on hazing: has the Spiral of Silence reached the Portuguese higher education?

Journal of Further and Higher Education, 45(10), 1325–1341 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & e Maria Joana Soares, M M F M (2020)

A Lei de Okun sob novas lentes

In A P Duarte, M Simões, P Bação, & R Martins (Eds ), Estudos de Homenagem a João Sousa Andrade (pp 485–500) Almedina DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Vanberg, C A (2020)

What are the best quorum rules? A laboratory investigation

Public Choice, 185(1-2), 215–231 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2020)

Okun's Law across time and frequencies

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 116(103897) DOI

Ojo, M O , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2020)

A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve

Empirical Economics, 58(5), 2333–2351 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Veiga, F J (2019)

Transparency, Policy Outcomes, and Incumbent Support

Kyklos, 72(3), 357–380 DOI

Alexandre, F , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Bação, P (2019)

Crise e Castigo e o dia seguinte - Os desequilibrios, o resgate e a recuperação da economia portuguesa

Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos DOI

Magalhães, P C , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2019)

Procedural Fairness, the Economy, and Support for Political Authorities

Political Psychology, 40(1), 165–181 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2018)

Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain

Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, 122–137 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Soares, M J , & Sousa, R (2018)

California's carbon market and energy prices: A wavelet analysis

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2126) DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Brinca, P , Gujónsson, H V , & Soares, M J (2017)

Business cycle synchronization across U S states

B E Journal of Macroeconomics, 17(1) DOI

Alexandre, F , Aguiar-Conraria, L , Bação, P , & Portela, M (2017)

Poupança e Financiamento da Economia Portuguesa

Imprensa Nacional - Casa da Moeda DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Vanberg, C A (2016)

Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts

Experimental Economics, 19(4), 886–909 DOI

Alexandre, F , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Bação, P (2016)

Crise e Castigo - Os desequilíbrios e o resgate da economia portuguesa

Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Soares, M J , & Magalhães, P (2015)

Application of Wavelets to the Study of Political History

In R A Meyers (Ed ), Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science (pp 1–16) Springer DOI

Sousa, R , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2015)

Energy and carbon prices: A comparison of interactions in the European Union emissions trading scheme and the Western climate initiative market

Carbon Management, 6(3-4), 129–140 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2014)

The continuous wavelet transform: Moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis

Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(2), 344–375 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Rodrigues, T M , & Soares, M J (2014)

Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area

In M Gallegati & W Semmler (Eds ), Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance, Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, 20 (pp 143–156) Springer International Publishing DOI

Sousa, R , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2014)

Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO 2 prices

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 414, 118–127 DOI

Soares, M J , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2014)

Inflation Rate Dynamics Convergence within the Euro

In B Murgante, S Misra, A M A C Rocha, C Torre, J G Rocha, M I Falcão, D Taniar, B O Apduhan & O Gervasi (Eds ) ICCSA 2014: Computational Science and Its Applications - ICCSA 2014 Lecture Notes in Computer Science (Vol 8579, pp 132-145) Springer, Cham DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Soares, M J (2013)

The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: A wavelet analysis

Public Choice, 156(3-4), 387–408 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2013)

Convergence of the Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Eurozone: A Time-Frequency Analysis

Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(3), 377–398 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Alexandre, F , & Pinho, M C (2012)

O euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual

Análise Social, 203(xlvii, 2º), 298-321 DOI

Aguiar, S , Aguiar-Conraria, L , Gulamhussen, M A , & Magalhães, P C (2012)

Foreign direct investment and home-country political risk: The case of Brazil

Latin American Research Review, 47(2), 144–165 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Wen, Y (2012)

OPEC's oil exporting strategy and macroeconomic (in)stability

Energy Economics, 34(1), 132–136 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Alexandre, F , & de Pinho, M C (2012)

The euro and the growth of the Portuguese economy:a counterfactual analysis

Análise Social, 47(2), 298–321 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Soares, M J (2012)

Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series

American Journal of Political Science, 56(2), 500–518 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2012)

The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(12), 1950–1970 DOI

Magalhães, P C , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Lewis-Beck, M S (2012)

Forecasting Spanish elections

International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 769–776 DOI

Conraria, L A , Alexandre, F , Bação, P , Cerejeira, J , & Portela, M (2012)

Emprego e TSU: o impacto no emprego das alterações nas contribuições dos trabalhadores e das empresas

NIPE Policy Paper, Universidade do Minho, Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE) DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2011)

Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis

Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 477–489 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2011)

Oil and the macroeconomy: Using wavelets to analyze old issues

Empirical Economics, 40(3), 645–655 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Magalhães, P C (2010)

How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: Evidence from a pivotal voter model

European Journal of Political Economy, 26(4), 541–557 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Magalhães, P C (2010)

Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout

Public Choice, 144(1), 63–81 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L (2009)

Challenges Ahead for the Portuguese Economy

South European Society and Politics, 14(2), 239–240 DOI

Magalhães, P C , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2009)

Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese general elections

Electoral Studies, 28(2), 314–321 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L (2008)

A note on the stability properties of goodwin's predator-prey model

Review of Radical Political Economics, 40(4), 518–523 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Wen, Y (2008)

A note on oil dependence and economic instability

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12(5), 717–723 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , Azevedo, N , & Soares, M J (2008)

Using wavelets to decompose the time-frequency effects of monetary policy

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 387(12), 2863–2878 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Wen, Y (2007)

Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(4), 925–944 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Shell, K (2006)

Capital Gains

International Journal of Economic Theory, 2(3-4), 331–349 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Shell, K (2005)

Capital Gains: Blue Machines and Red Machines

The Singapore Economic Review, 50(SPEC ISS 1), 437–447 DOI

Aguiar-Conraria, L (2005)

Public vs Private schooling in an endogenous growth model

Economics Bulletin, 9(10), 1–6 DOI

More publications

Projects

CLICTOUR - Climate change resilient tourism in protected areas of Northern Portugal

Funding: Comissão de Coordenação e Desenvolvimento Regional do Norte | CCDR-N

Duration: 2021-05-01 - 2023-04-30

Researchers and Team

Lead Researcher

Rita Sousa

Team

Francisco Carballo Cruz
Luís Aguiar-Conraria
António Avelino Batista Vieira
António José Bento Gonçalves
João Cerejeira
Linda Gonçalves Veiga
José Cadima Ribeiro
Ana Melo

É tudo sobre produtividade: contribuições para a compreensão da estagnação da economia portuguesa

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duration: 2018-10-01 - 2022-09-30

Researchers and Team

Lead Researcher

Miguel Portela
Fernando Alexandre

Team

João Cerejeira
Marta Simões
Carla Sá
Ana Carvalho
Luís Aguiar-Conraria
Nuno Azevedo
Pedro Bação
Francisco Veiga
Gilberto Loureiro
Paulo Guimarães
Sujiao ZHAO
Marta Silva
Octávio Figueiredo

Voting rules and electoral biases

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duration: 2016-05-01 - 2019-12-31

Researchers and Team

Lead Researcher

Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Team

Pedro Magalhães

Financial Literacy

Funding: European Investment Bank

Duration: 2013-01-01 - 2015-12-31

Researchers and Team

Team

Linda Gonçalves Veiga
Francisco Veiga
Luís Aguiar-Conraria
Fernando Alexandre
Carla Sá
Miguel Portela

POPSTAR - Public Opinion and Sentiment Tracking, Analysis and Research

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duration: 2012-07-01 - 2014-12-31

Researchers and Team

Lead Researcher

Pedro Magalhães

Team

Luís Aguiar-Conraria
Mário Jorge Gaspar Silva
Carlos Manuel Pinto Soares
Paula Cristina Fonseca Carvalho
Nina Wiesehomeier
Silvio Amir Moreira
Matko Bošnjak
Tiago Sá Cunha
Luis Filipe Gomes

1986-2010: The Portuguese Economy in the European Union

Funding: Universidade do Minho

Duration: 2010-04-01 - 2014-05-07

Researchers and Team

Lead Researcher

Fernando Alexandre

Team

Miguel Portela
Francisco Carballo Cruz
Carla Sá
Francisco Veiga
Luís Aguiar-Conraria
Manuel Herédia
Sílvia Sousa

Monetary policy and asset prices in regime-switching economies

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duration: 2010-01-01 - 2012-06-30

Researchers and Team

Lead Researcher

Pedro Bação

Team

Fernando Alexandre
Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Oil shocks and the Macroeconomy: Econometric estimation, economic modeling and policy implications

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P.

Duration: 2008-01-01 - 2011-03-31

Researchers and Team

Lead Researcher

Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Team

Carlos Cortinhas
Fernando Alexandre

Teaching

Economia Monetária e Financeira Internacional Mestrado

Economia Monetária Internacional Licenciatura

Filtros e Ôndulas em Economia Doutoramento

Metodologia e Proposta de Investigação em Economia Mestrado

People

Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Campus de Gualtar - Edificio 8 - 2.25

About

Areas of interest

Publications

Economic forecasts and executive approval

The performance of OECD's composite leading indicator

The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency

How Far is Gas from becoming a Global Commodity?

Opinion expression on hazing: has the Spiral of Silence reached the Portuguese higher education?

A Lei de Okun sob novas lentes

What are the best quorum rules? A laboratory investigation

Okun's Law across time and frequencies

A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve

Transparency, Policy Outcomes, and Incumbent Support

Crise e Castigo e o dia seguinte - Os desequilibrios, o resgate e a recuperação da economia portuguesa

Procedural Fairness, the Economy, and Support for Political Authorities

Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain

California's carbon market and energy prices: A wavelet analysis

Business cycle synchronization across U S states

Poupança e Financiamento da Economia Portuguesa

Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts

Crise e Castigo - Os desequilíbrios e o resgate da economia portuguesa

Application of Wavelets to the Study of Political History

Energy and carbon prices: A comparison of interactions in the European Union emissions trading scheme and the Western climate initiative market

The continuous wavelet transform: Moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis

Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area

Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO 2 prices

Inflation Rate Dynamics Convergence within the Euro

The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: A wavelet analysis

Convergence of the Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Eurozone: A Time-Frequency Analysis

O euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual

Foreign direct investment and home-country political risk: The case of Brazil

OPEC's oil exporting strategy and macroeconomic (in)stability

The euro and the growth of the Portuguese economy:a counterfactual analysis

Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series

The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies

Forecasting Spanish elections

Emprego e TSU: o impacto no emprego das alterações nas contribuições dos trabalhadores e das empresas

Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis

Oil and the macroeconomy: Using wavelets to analyze old issues

How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: Evidence from a pivotal voter model

Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout

Challenges Ahead for the Portuguese Economy

Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese general elections

A note on the stability properties of goodwin's predator-prey model

A note on oil dependence and economic instability

Using wavelets to decompose the time-frequency effects of monetary policy

Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks

Capital Gains

Capital Gains: Blue Machines and Red Machines

Public vs Private schooling in an endogenous growth model

Projects

CLICTOUR - Climate change resilient tourism in protected areas of Northern Portugal

Lead Researcher

Team

É tudo sobre produtividade: contribuições para a compreensão da estagnação da economia portuguesa

Lead Researcher

Team

Voting rules and electoral biases

Lead Researcher

Team

Financial Literacy

Team

POPSTAR - Public Opinion and Sentiment Tracking, Analysis and Research

Lead Researcher

Team

1986-2010: The Portuguese Economy in the European Union

Lead Researcher

Team

Monetary policy and asset prices in regime-switching economies

Lead Researcher

Team

Oil shocks and the Macroeconomy: Econometric estimation, economic modeling and policy implications

Lead Researcher

Team

Teaching

SDG

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