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Luís Aguiar-Conraria

Ph.D in Economics Cornell University

About

Full Professor at the University of Minho, Ph.D. in Economics (Cornell University), MSc in Economics (University of Porto), and Licentiate in Economics (University of Coimbra).
In the past, he has been the director of the Economics Department and Vice-president for Internationalization and Research in the School of Economics and Management.
In 2011, he received the Gulbenkian Prize for Social Sciences Internationalization. In 2010 and 2013 he received the EEG/UMinho’s Prize for excellence in research He has received several grants from FCT. Currently, he has a 3-year grant about voting rules and electoral distortions – €95 000.

 

 

Areas of interest

Macroeconomics
Portuguese Economy
Political Economy
Wavelet Analysis Carbon Markets

Publications

Ojo, M O , Aguiar‐Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2024)

The performance of OECD's composite leading indicator

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 29(2), 2265-2277 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Fernandes, B , & Magalhães, P C (2023)

Economic forecasts and executive approval

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 34(4), 643–655 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Fernandes, B , & Magalhães, P C (2023)

The economy and executive approval in a semi-presidential regime: The case of Portugal

In Economics and Politics Revisited: Executive Approval and the New Calculus of Support (pp 108-130) DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2023)

The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 151, 104620 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Conceição, G , & Soares, M J (2021)

How Far is Gas from becoming a Global Commodity?

Energy Journal, 43(4), 153–172 DOI
Alexandre, J C , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2021)

Opinion expression on hazing: has the Spiral of Silence reached the Portuguese higher education?

Journal of Further and Higher Education, 45(10), 1325–1341 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , & e Maria Joana Soares, M M F M (2020)

A Lei de Okun sob novas lentes

In A P Duarte, M Simões, P Bação, & R Martins (Eds ), Estudos de Homenagem a João Sousa Andrade (pp 485–500) Almedina DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Vanberg, C A (2020)

What are the best quorum rules? A laboratory investigation

Public Choice, 185(1-2), 215–231 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2019)

Okun’s Law Across Time and Frequencies

(No 13) Universidade do Minho, NIPE DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Soares, M J , & Sousa, R (2018)

California's carbon market and energy prices: A wavelet analysis

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2126) DOI
Ojo, M O , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2020)

A time–frequency analysis of the Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve

Empirical Economics, 58(5), 2333–2351 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Veiga, F J (2019)

Transparency, Policy Outcomes, and Incumbent Support

Kyklos, 72(3), 357–380 DOI
Alexandre, F , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Bação, P (2019)

Crise e Castigo e o dia seguinte - Os desequilibrios, o resgate e a recuperação da economia portuguesa

Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos DOI
Magalhães, P C , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2019)

Procedural Fairness, the Economy, and Support for Political Authorities

Political Psychology, 40(1), 165–181 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2018)

Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain

Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, 122–137 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Soares, M J , & Sousa, R (2018)

California's carbon market and energy prices: A wavelet analysis

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2126) DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Brinca, P , Gujónsson, H V , & Soares, M J (2017)

Business cycle synchronization across U S states

B E Journal of Macroeconomics, 17(1) DOI
Alexandre, F , Aguiar-Conraria, L , Bação, P , & Portela, M (2017)

Poupança e Financiamento da Economia Portuguesa

Imprensa Nacional - Casa da Moeda DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Vanberg, C A (2016)

Experimental evidence that quorum rules discourage turnout and promote election boycotts

Experimental Economics, 19(4), 886–909 DOI
Alexandre, F , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Bação, P (2016)

Crise e Castigo - Os desequilíbrios e o resgate da economia portuguesa

Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Soares, M J , & Magalhães, P (2015)

Application of Wavelets to the Study of Political History

In R A Meyers (Ed ), Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science (pp 1–16) Springer DOI
Sousa, R , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2015)

Energy and carbon prices: A comparison of interactions in the European Union emissions trading scheme and the Western climate initiative market

Carbon Management, 6(3-4), 129–140 DOI
Sousa, R , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2014)

Carbon financial markets: A time-frequency analysis of CO 2 prices

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 414, 118–127 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2014)

The continuous wavelet transform: Moving beyond uni- and bivariate analysis

Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(2), 344–375 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Rodrigues, T M , & Soares, M J (2014)

Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area

In M Gallegati & W Semmler (Eds ), Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance, Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, 20 (pp 143–156) Springer International Publishing DOI
Soares, M J , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2014)

Inflation Rate Dynamics Convergence within the Euro

In B Murgante, S Misra, A M A C Rocha, C Torre, J G Rocha, M I Falcão, D Taniar, B O Apduhan & O Gervasi (Eds ) ICCSA 2014: Computational Science and Its Applications - ICCSA 2014 Lecture Notes in Computer Science (Vol 8579, pp 132-145) Springer, Cham DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Soares, M J (2013)

The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: A wavelet analysis

Public Choice, 156(3-4), 387–408 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2013)

Convergence of the Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Eurozone: A Time-Frequency Analysis

Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(3), 377–398 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Alexandre, F , & Pinho, M C (2012)

O euro e o crescimento da economia portuguesa: uma análise contrafactual

Análise Social, 203(xlvii, 2º), 298-321 DOI
Aguiar, S , Aguiar-Conraria, L , Gulamhussen, M A , & Magalhães, P C (2012)

Foreign direct investment and home-country political risk: The case of Brazil

Latin American Research Review, 47(2), 144–165 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Wen, Y (2012)

OPEC's oil exporting strategy and macroeconomic (in)stability

Energy Economics, 34(1), 132–136 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Alexandre, F , & de Pinho, M C (2012)

The euro and the growth of the Portuguese economy:a counterfactual analysis

Análise Social, 47(2), 298–321 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Magalhães, P C , & Soares, M J (2012)

Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series

American Journal of Political Science, 56(2), 500–518 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Martins, M M F , & Soares, M J (2012)

The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(12), 1950–1970 DOI
Magalhães, P C , Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Lewis-Beck, M S (2012)

Forecasting Spanish elections

International Journal of Forecasting, 28(4), 769–776 DOI
Conraria, L A , Alexandre, F , Bação, P , Cerejeira, J , & Portela, M (2012)

Emprego e TSU: o impacto no emprego das alterações nas contribuições dos trabalhadores e das empresas

NIPE Policy Paper, Universidade do Minho, Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE) DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2011)

Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis

Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 477–489 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Soares, M J (2011)

Oil and the macroeconomy: Using wavelets to analyze old issues

Empirical Economics, 40(3), 645–655 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Magalhães, P C (2010)

How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: Evidence from a pivotal voter model

European Journal of Political Economy, 26(4), 541–557 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Magalhães, P C (2010)

Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout

Public Choice, 144(1), 63–81 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L (2009)

Challenges Ahead for the Portuguese Economy

South European Society and Politics, 14(2), 239–240 DOI
Magalhães, P C , & Aguiar-Conraria, L (2009)

Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese general elections

Electoral Studies, 28(2), 314–321 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L (2008)

A note on the stability properties of goodwin's predator-prey model

Review of Radical Political Economics, 40(4), 518–523 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Wen, Y (2008)

A note on oil dependence and economic instability

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12(5), 717–723 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , Azevedo, N , & Soares, M J (2008)

Using wavelets to decompose the time-frequency effects of monetary policy

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 387(12), 2863–2878 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L , & Shell, K (2005)

Capital Gains: Blue Machines and Red Machines

The Singapore Economic Review, 50(SPEC ISS 1), 437–447 DOI
Aguiar-Conraria, L (2005)

Public vs Private schooling in an endogenous growth model

Economics Bulletin, 9(10), 1–6 DOI

Projects

CLICTOUR - Turismo Resiliente às Alterações Climáticas nas Áreas Protegidas do Norte de Portugal

Funding: Comissão de Coordenação e Desenvolvimento Regional do Norte | CCDR-N

Duration: 2021-05-01 - 2023-06-30

É tudo sobre produtividade: contribuições para a compreensão da estagnação da economia portuguesa

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duration: 2018-10-01 - 2022-09-30

Regras de votação e distorções eleitorais

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duration: 2016-05-01 - 2020-05-31

Financial Literacy

Funding: European Investment Bank

Duration: 2013-01-01 - 2015-12-31

POPSTAR - Public Opinion and Sentiment Tracking, Analysis and Research

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duration: 2012-07-01 - 2014-12-31

1986-2010: The Portuguese Economy in the European Union

Funding: Universidade do Minho

Duration: 2010-04-01 - 2014-05-07

Monetary policy and asset prices in regime-switching economies

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Duration: 2010-01-01 - 2012-06-30

Oil shocks and the Macroeconomy: Econometric estimation, economic modeling and policy implications

Funding: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P.

Duration: 2008-01-01 - 2011-03-31

Teaching

Economia Monetária e Financeira Internacional Mestrado
Economia Monetária Internacional Licenciatura
Filtros e Ôndulas em Economia Doutoramento
Metodologia e Proposta de Investigação em Economia Mestrado

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