Room 1.33 EEG & Online
Bio: João Alcobia is Researcher at Research in Economics and Mathematics at Lisbon School of Economics and Management. He is a Ph.D in Economics at ISEG and his main research interest are in the fields of political economy, post-Keynesian economics, structural change, and income inequality.
Abstract: This study investigates whether the Euro Area periphery member states would have been wealthier in 2010 had not they participated in the Economic and Monetary Union, as implied by the optimum currency area literature and the 1977 MacDougall report prepared for the European Commission. Using a synthetic control method, we found that by 2010, periphery member states’ net international investment positions would show an improvement of, on weighted average, 42% of GDP, which is equivalent to a combined 2.2 trillion of 2010 euros. The econometric results are robust to standard synthetic control method sensitivity tests. Finally, we discuss why the Economic and Monetary Union may have led to such a severe deterioration in the net external wealth position of the periphery member states.