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Seminários

The impact of endogenous product and labour market reforms on unemployment: New evidence based on local projections

Orador convidado

João Jalles (ISEG)

Local

Sala -1.26 EEG & Online

Data

Início13.11.2024 13:15Fim13.11.2024 14:15

Resumo do evento

Biograph:

João Tovar Jalles is an Economist, University Professor and Consultant. Currently he is Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics at ISEG – University of Lisbon. Before he was a Senior Economist at the Portuguese Public Finance Council. Previously he spent 5 years at the IMF: 1 year in the Research Department and 4 years in the Fiscal Affairs Department, where he participated in numerous negotiation, review and technical assistance missions.
Before joining the Fund, João was an Economist at the OECD’s Economics Department and before that a Fiscal Economist at the ECB’s Fiscal Policies Division.
João was a Visiting Scholar at the IMF’s Research Department and a Visiting Researcher at the Bank of Portugal’s Research Department. He also has acted as consultant and expert to national and international organizations on several ocasions.

Abstract

We examine the impact of structural reforms on unemployment in 25 OECD countries between 1970-2020. Our local projection (LP) results suggest that labour market reforms reduce unemployment, but only after four years (for youth unemployment it takes longer for the effect to set in), while product market reforms have no statistically significant effect on unemployment. However, if we control for the endogeneity of reforms, the effect of labour market reform becomes statistically significant within a year, while product market reforms temporarily increase unemployment. We also find that labour market reforms hardly have an impact on unemployment in the euro area and that labour market reforms do not significantly affect unemployment when the economy is below trend. The effects of structural reforms on unemployment are stronger under high collective bargaining.

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